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AETOS Mike Thomas:加入亚投行利好中澳

2015年08月28日15:00 来源: 和讯视频
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主 持 人:刘冬 嘉宾:MikeThomas

文字实录:

  AETOS艾拓思资本集团高级副总裁Mike Thomas媒体专访

  Media Interview of Councillor Mike Thomas, Senior Vice President of AETOS Capital Group

  1. 2015年1月15日,瑞士央行宣布取消自2011年9月以来一直维持着的欧元兑瑞郎汇价1.20下限措施,导致市场出现了1970年以来最大的震荡,对国际金融市场造成了巨大的冲击,包括福汇在内的多家知名经纪商损失惨重,请问艾拓思在本次事件中采取什么应对,是否收到冲击?您认为本次黑天鹅事件给整个外汇行业会来什么样的警示?

  On January 15, 2015, the Swiss National Bank announced it was eliminating the floor exchange rate limit of EUR/CHF at 1.2, a measure that has been maintained since September 2011. This has resulted in the biggest shock to the global financial market since 1970, and has also brought losses to international financial brokers like FXCM. What countermeasures has AETOS taken to deal with this incident ? Has the financial crisis affected AETOS’s business? What kind of warning do you think this crisis gives the foreign exchange industry?

  答:艾拓思是一家保持稳健作风的经纪商,我们主要通过采取以下防范措施来面对国际金融市场上的突发状况:

  第一、扩大公司流量通道数量,以确保将风险分散到不同的流量通道中;

  第二、采用相对较低的杠杆比率,风险敞口相对较小;

  第三、公司内部高层采取扁平化的管理与沟通方式,以确保在发生异常情况下能迅速启动相关反应机制;

  事实证明正是有了以上预防措施才能确保公司平稳过度此类黑天鹅事件,将损失降低至完全可控范围之内。随着艾拓思的不断发展壮大,我们还将一如既往的坚持我们稳健的作风。

  A: AETOS is a practical broker; thus we have rigorous risk control procedures and a comprehensive risk management system to avoid market risks, including:

  Firstly, expanding the number of liquidity providers, to diversify the risk in different liquidity channels;

  Secondly, employing a relatively low leverage ratio in order to lower the exposure to high risk;

  Thirdly, maintaining fast and effective communication within the management team thanks to our flat management model, allowing us to make quick decisions to react to the market even in exceptional circumstances.

  It has been proved that the above preventive measures are effective, and it has helped AETOS to

  control and minimize losses resulting from the crisis. In a nutshell, we have taken practical measures to safeguard our business and ensure that our business development remains stable.

  2. 中国市场是贵公司一直以来发展的重点,今年上半年中国股市火爆,请问这对贵公司上半年业绩是否有影响,贵公司上半年业绩相较去年同期如何?

  China is one of the important markets for AETOS. Has China's bull stock market in the first half of this year impacted its business? How has AETOS performed when compared with the same period in 2014?

  答:前期异常火爆的中国股市在近期突然“冷静”了下来,在我们看来是因为中国资本市场现正处于从计划经济进化至市场经济的中间阶段,在发展的过程中出现不断的纠错与变革,在此阶段往往是机遇和风险并存。我们希望中国资本市场能发展的越来越稳健、开放、成熟!

  在过去的一年里,随着中国经济的高速发展,愈来愈多的中国投资者对于资产配置的需求和风险管理的意识也在不断提升,AETOS艾拓思中华区的业绩也是同步得到了大幅度的增长,同比增幅超过100%。

  A: The heated Chinese stock market has recently cooled down. In our opinion, it’s because China's capital market is now in the intermediate stage of evolution from a planned economy to a market economy, with error corrections and adjustments appearing during this process. In this phase, both opportunities and risks usually co-exist. We hope the development of China's capital market will be more stable, open and mature.

  In the past year, with the rapid development of the Chinese economy, more and more Chinese investors have demanded asset allocation and become more conscious in risk management. As a result, AETOS has experienced sharp business growth, peaking at over 100% in China compared with the 1st half of 2014.

  3. 自2011年贵公司进入中国市场以来,已在包括上海、大连、济南、石家庄等多个省市开立了9家直属办事机构,请问今年是否会继续在其他城市继续开设办事处?

  AETOS has set up 9 offices in China, including Shanghai, Dalian, Jinan, and Shijiazhuang since entering the China market in 2011. Does AETOS have any plan to open more offices in China?

  答:2015年是艾拓思成立的第8年,在经过了前期的快速发展之后,目前已进入了投资者服务与教育的重要阶段。

  2015年6月AETOS艾拓思在中国首都北京设立了第10家官方办事处,AETOS艾拓思北京办事处地处国贸核心CBD,比邻中央电视台新址。

  北京办事处主要协同艾拓思各地办事处服务网络提供本土化支持,其主要服务范围为京津冀区域。

  在未来,艾拓思将结合本土化的需求,继续稳健的发展服务网络覆盖率。

  A: As of the current year 2015, AETOS has been established for 8 years. Having experienced rapid development during this period, we are now entering another important stage with a focus on delivering services and education to investors.

  In June, 2015, AETOS opened the 10th branch office in Beijing, which is located in the Central Business District (CBD), next to the CCTV building.

  AETOS’ Beijing office will collaborate with other branch offices to provide local support and services mainly for the clients in Beijng, Tianjian and Hebei Province. In the future, AETOS will continue to increase its service network coverage to meet the local customers’ demand.

  4. 自2014年以来,澳大利亚证券投资委员会 (ASIC) 逐步加大了对持有其牌照的经纪商监管力度,迄今为止,已有多家外汇经纪商被吊销牌照,请问对此有何看法?同时我们也注意到,贵公司在ASIC从未产生违规记录,请问贵公司是怎样做到的?

  Since 2014, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has gradually tightened the regulation of its licensed brokers. So far, several foreign exchange brokers’ license have been revoked. What is your opinion on this? By the way, we notice that your company has never had any violation record in ASIC, how do you manage to do this?

  答:ASIC在2014年报告中指出,过去两年间,有大批公司申请了AFS牌照,并获得ASIC的授权,其中的大部分公司为场外衍生品和保证金交易提供商,这种现象导致ASIC监管被滥用。

  面对这种情况,ASIC也出台了一系列相关的措施。ASIC表示,将逐步加大对持有其牌照的经纪商的监管力度,并对不合规的经纪公司监管牌照予以撤销。

  AETOS艾拓思一直以来都严格遵守各项监管标准,在全球的业务与经营中不断完善内部各个部门对监管的信息更新与培训。除此以外,AETOS艾拓思还定期有序的进行反洗钱(AML)、客户评估(KYC)等一系列法规培训与考核,不断完善公司内部整体合规意识,稳健发展。

  A: ASIC’s report in 2014 shows that over the past two years, a large number of companies have applied for the AFS license and hence acquired the authorization of ASIC. Among them are mostly derivatives and margin trading providers that has led the ASIC regulatory to be abused.

  In view of this, ASIC has already issued a series of measures. ASIC also claimed that it will gradually increase the supervision of its licensed brokers and will revoke the license of those who have violated the regulations. AETOS has been strictly abide by the various regulatory standards. We constantly improve the regulatory information update and training for all the counterparts involved in our global business. Besides, AETOS also regularly and orderly provides a series of law and regulation training, which include anti-money laundering (AML) and customer assessment (KYC) training, to improve the overall compliance consciousness of our people and to help the company sustain healthy and steady development.

   

  5. 我们获悉,近期贵公司持有的英国FCA牌照获得升级,可否就此进行详细介绍?

  We know that AETOS has its FCA license with variation of permission to hold the clients’ money in May this year. Would you like to tell us more about this?

  答:AETOS艾拓思是一家集团公司,其属下有多家子公司, 包括在澳大利亚注册的全资子公司AETOS Capital Group Pty. Ltd.。澳大利亚全资子公司AETOS Capital Group Pty. Ltd. 于2007年获得ASIC的金融服务牌照并受其监管。另一家英国公司AETOS Capital Group(UK) Ltd.于2013年获得FCA的金融服务牌照并受其监管。

  AETOS艾拓思在发展过程中一直严格遵守监管标准,英国公司AETOS Capital Group(UK) Ltd.的FCA牌照于今年5月份获得升级,获许持有客户资金。

  升级后,艾拓思英国全资子公司可以使用其在英国FCA监管的托管银行持有客户保证金存款;同时,将遵守欧盟MIFID规则,在其获许的29个EEA国家经营特定的金融服务,提供包括差价合约、即时外汇交易合同、点差交易、商品期货、期权等在内的多项金融服务。

  A: AETOS is a corporation with many subsidiaries. AETOS Capital Group Pty. Ltd. is one of them. It has been registered in Australia,licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) since 2007 (AFS License: 313016, ACN: 125113117, ABN: 94125113117). It is permitted to provide financial services in Australia within the licensing scope.

  AETOS Capital Group (UK) Ltd. is registered in UK. It has been licensed and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), UK since 2013 (FCA No.: 592778).

  AETOS, throughout the entire course of development, has strictly complied with regulatory standards. For this reason, AETOS Capital Group (UK) Ltd. had its FCA license with variation of permission (VOP) upgraded to hold the clients’ money in May this year.

  With the VOP, AETOS is able to hold the clients’ margin deposits in its custodian bank which is regulated by the FCA. At the same time, AETOS will adhere to the rules of MIFID in the European Union, to provide financial services in 29 EEA States, including contracts for differences, rolling spot forex contract , spread bet, futures and options.

  6. 目前澳大利亚经济状况如何,对于其经济前景,您保持什么看法?

  How is the current economic situation of Australia? What is your view on her economic outlook?

  答:综合各方面因素,澳大利亚当前的总体经济环境状况已经好于三个月前,这主要是受到了此前澳洲联储降息行动的助推,而澳元汇率下跌以及大宗商品价格的反弹,也有望令澳洲经济见底回升。

  现在就对澳大利亚国内企业投资者增加的状况下定论,可能还为时过早,然而,在2015-2016年间,澳洲非矿业企业投资得到宽松的货币与财政政策的助推拉动而全面回升的前景几乎已成必然,这将抵消因为该国第一大出口市场中国经济减速而带来的额外冲击。

  展望未来,澳大利亚有望实现持续高增长、低通涨、就业迅速增长的势头,大规模资源开发的投资正方兴未艾,澳大利亚的传统农业和资源性工业在经济多样化的情况下仍可保持不断的发展。

  A: Having considered all factors, Australia’s current overall economic environment is better than three months ago. This is mainly because of the Fed’s rate cuts.The fall in Australian dollar exchange rate and the rebound in bulk commodity prices fuel hope for the Australian economy bottoming out.

  It might be premature to jump to a conclusion based on the rise in Australia's domestic enterprise investors. However, between 2015 and 2016, it is almost inevitable that Australian non-mining

  sectors investment will have a comprehensive recovery under the boost of loose monetary and fiscal policies. It will offset the additional impact caused by the economic slowdown of China, which being the country's largest export market.

  Looking into the future, Australia is expected to achieve sustainable high growth, low inflation and rapid growth in employment. Large-scale investment in resource development is ascendant, Australia's traditional agriculture and resources industry will still achieve constant development despite the nation’s economic diversification.

  7. 近年来澳洲央行持续下调其基准利率,请问您认为是什么原因导致?对于未来澳大利亚央行的货币政策,您持什么看法?

  In recent years, Australia's Central Bank has continued to cut its benchmark interest rate. What do you think is the main cause of this? What is your view on its monetary policy in the future?

  答:澳大利亚空前的矿业投资热潮令澳经济在长达二十年的时间里避免了衰退,但随着矿业投资潮的逐渐消退,非资源领域投资增长难以填补矿产投资留下的缺口,该国经济数据在过去一年里开始逐渐走软。为提振疲软的经济,澳央行自2011年11月以来累计下调基准利率250个基点,其中今年2月和5月分别降息25个基点。此后,基准利率一直维持在历史低位不变。

  不过,澳央行对未来的货币政策走向仍然保持灵活的态度,不排除进一步宽松的可能性。澳央行货币政策委员会认为当前维持利率不变是“合适”的决定,未来一段时间内将继续接收经济和金融环境的相关数据,这将给委员会持续进行的经济前景评估提供信息,并据此判断当前货币政策立场是否有利于经济可持续增长和将通胀维持在目标水平。

  受大宗商品需求不振、美元走强的影响,近期澳元汇率持续走低,成为主要货币中表现最弱势的币种。考虑到包括铁矿石和煤炭在内的澳大利亚主要出口大宗商品价格疲软,如果未来澳元持续回暖,预计澳央行关于澳元估值过高的担忧仍将升温。当大宗商品价格下滑时,澳元应该相应贬值。大部分专家仍然倾向于认为,长远来看澳元还将进一步下跌。

  A: Unprecedented mining investment boom in Australia has helped the nation avoid recession for twenty years. However, as the mining investment boom gradually faded, and the non-resources investment growth is hard to fill the gap left by the mining investment, the country's economic data in the past year began to show signs of weakness. To boost the weak economy, the central bank has cut the benchmark interest rate by 250 basis points accumulatively since November 2011. In February and May this year, the central bank cut interest rates respectively by 25 basis points. Since then, the benchmark interest rate has remained unchanged at a record low.

  However, the central bank’s monetary policy for the future will remain flexible, and will not rule out the possibility of further easing. The central bank's monetary policy committee believes that keeping interest rates currently unchanged is a "right" decision.They will continue to collect data in relation to the economic and financial environment. This will provide information to their ongoing economic prospects assessment, and help the committee to determine whether the current monetary policy stance is conducive to achieving sustainable economic growth and keeping the inflation within target.

  Affected by the weak demand for bulk stock and the strong dollar, Australian dollar exchange rate has kept falling recently, and has become the weakest among the major currencies. In view of the weak prices of Australia’s leading export bulk commodities including iron ore and coal, if Australian dollar continues to pickup in the future, the central bank’s concern over the overvalued of Australian dollar is expected to rise. When bulk commodity prices decline, the Australian dollar should devalue accordingly. Most experts still incline to agree that the Australian dollar will fall further in the long run.

  8. 本周经济增长导致大宗商品价格显著下降。你认为短期内会有价格反弹吗?

  Week economic growth has led to significant falls in commodity prices. Do you expect any short term rebound in prices?

  答:我认为大宗商品价格的潜在疲软将持续到2016年。大宗商品价格疲软是全球经济的疲软和供应过剩的组合所导致。

  我认为,商品价格不低,他们只是从相对短期的和不可持续的高价格上降下来了。

  至于主要商品,任何持续增长都将鼓励更多的供应,而这又将再次压低价格。一个很好的例子是澳大利亚的铁矿石出口。尽管价格大幅下跌,澳大利亚预计2015年出口量仍将比过去两年有所增加。

  I think the underlying weakness in commodity prices will continue through 2016. The weakness in commodity prices is a combination in the weakness of the global economy and oversupply.

  I would argue that commodity prices are not weak; they have just fallen from relatively short term and unsustainably high prices.

  For major commodities, any sustained increases will encourage more supply which will again depress prices. A good example is iron ore exports from Australia. Australia is forecast to export more in 2015 than in the last two years despite significant falls in prices.

  9. 澳大利亚是一个主要的大宗商品出口国,那么澳大利亚是如何经受住大宗商品价格下跌的呢?

  Australia is a major commodities exporter. How has Australia weathered the falls in commodity prices?

  答:澳大利亚作为亚太地区的发达国家,其自身经济是多元化的,虽然大宗商品价格的下跌会对其经济造成一定程度上的拖累,但是也可通过其他方面的措施对冲相应的风险。在金融层面上,以大宗商品出口的企业可利用相应的金融工具对冲风险,比如套期保值。而在国家层面上,大力发展本国基础建设,同时推动房地产产业的发展,维持合理通胀水平和物价适度上涨等宏观政策皆可保持澳大利亚的经济稳定性。

  A: Australia, as the one of the most important developed countries in the Asia-Pacific region, its own economy is diversified, although the fall in commodity prices will cause a drag on its economy to some extent, but the risk can be hedged by corresponding measures in other areas. On the financial level, appropriate financial instruments can be used to reduce potential risks for those commodity-export companies, such as hedging. At the national level, to develop their domestic infrastructures, to sustain a reasonable level of inflation, while promoting the development of real estate industry, and other opportune macro-economic policies would be helpful in order to maintain economic stability.

  10. 澳大利亚已经加入中国领导亚洲基础设施投资银行,这是否可以视作中澳关系的一个改变呢?

  Australia has joined the Chinese lead Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Does this signal a change in Australia's relationships?

  答:根据亚洲开发银行2011年做出的预测,到2020年,亚洲每年将有7500亿美元的基础设施建设资金缺口,现有的融资平台显然已难以满足需要。创立“亚投行”是顺应地区发展潮流的举措,并不会因为某一国或几国的不加入而停止脚步。然而,作为亚太地区重要发达国家,无论是提供资本还是经验,澳大利亚对亚太地区发展的重要性毋庸置疑,它的加入也必将产生积极影响。

  从澳大利亚自身来看,加入“亚投行”的经济利益是巨大的,将帮助其实现“亚洲世纪”的目标。国内层次,澳大利亚各州一直积极吸引来自中国的基础设施投资,中澳政府还在2012年签署了促进基础设施建设的合作备忘录。基础设施投资是今后一段时间内澳大利亚国民经济的重要增长点。如霍基所说,澳大利亚如果作为“亚投行”的创始成员,澳大利亚企业界则将有更多的机会参与到“亚投行”所投资的项目中,进而拉动其资源业和服务业的增长。

  A: According to the forecast made by the "Asian Development Bank(ADB)" in 2011, there will be a USD 750 billion annual infrastructure funding gap in Asia by 2020. However, the existing financing platform is clearly difficult to match the market needs. The creation of the "Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank(AIIB)" is the development trend in order to follow the regional initiatives, and it will not be stopped by one or few countries that would not like to be part of it. As one of the most important developed countries in the Asia-Pacific region, Australia has significant and positive impact in the AIIB due to its capital and experience.

  The economic benefits by joining the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank(AIIB)for Australia are enormous, and will help to achieve Australia’s goal in establishing the “Asian Century". In domestic level, the Australian states have been actively attracting investment in infrastructure from China. In addition, the Australian government and the Chinese government had signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) for infrastructure development in 2012, of which infrastructure investment will be the key for the growth of the Australian national economy. As the TreasurerJoe Hockey said, if Australia is a founding member of theAsian Infrastructure Investment Bank(AIIB), then the Australian business communities will have more opportunities to participate in the investment projects of the AIIB, and this would turn to the growth boost in the resource industry and the service sector in Australia.

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